Comments: 6
cougashika [2014-02-18 18:41:47 +0000 UTC]
The pusher plate gives it away. A precision picture, near photographic.
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NyrathWiz [2014-02-16 23:44:38 +0000 UTC]
OH MY GOD!! An Orion drive spacecraft with an OPEN-CYCLE NTR LANDER!!???!
Mr. Black, you undeniably think in big terms, and you certainly do not do things by half-measures.
The landing site will be somewhat radioactive, but that rig could transport an entire Martian colony in one trip. Or two colonies.
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William-Black In reply to NyrathWiz [2014-02-17 01:05:07 +0000 UTC]
Thanks Winchell, having a sense of your background (of in depth, and deeply studied interests) that is indeed a satisfyingly expansive statement – indeed the scale of the Martian settlement project is vast.
The defining metric at this stage of the future history is shaped by the intent of the founders who initiated the move to the Red planet, an intent informed by the momentum of politics and philosophy present in societies across the globe in the fifty or sixty years before and leading right up to the departure.
The founders of the colony project hold the conviction that the move must be an all-in-one move – which they attempt, with a preparation stage (even prior to construction and launch of the colony spacecraft) longer than the span of a single human lifetime.
Because humans are fallible, my co-author and I considered that a later period of Earth revisitation might be required; the circumstances of which have consequence that extend across the span of the first epoch of the future history.
By the way, your G+ posts spotlighting my work are enormously appreciated, thank you!
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NyrathWiz In reply to William-Black [2014-02-17 14:21:49 +0000 UTC]
(do you have a G+ account? I can use it in my posts spotlighting your work if you'd like)
Agreed, the Mars Colony is a huge undertaking, and making it an all-in-one move is probably crucial to making it work.
Your scale is bang on. The "Mars One" project looks like it plans on landing six Merlin vehicles with four colonists, which translates into about 2.3 metric tons of payload per colonist. Offhand I'd say that is far too little, there is zero margin for error. Especially since any emergency relief package is going to take the better part of a year to arrive. It's like trying to colonize Antarctica with a couple of pup tents and a pocket full of MREs.
If the back of my envelope is correct, your project has more like 1,000 metric tons per colonist, which to me is far more reasonable.
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William-Black In reply to NyrathWiz [2014-02-17 23:38:02 +0000 UTC]
I try to make a diligent effort to ground my assumptions in hard data – which means doing a lot of research, which is where your Atomic Rocket’s site has provided invaluable direction.
I started with your Life Support page and from there followed the information, studying (rather than reading) NASA’s Advanced Life Support Baseline Values and Assumptions Document – which I saved as a reference document. I also read Rick Robinson's essay Spaceship design 102: Life Support. Then I put Eric Rozier’s Mission Calculator to work.
I spent a lot of time researching what kind of durable goods, machine tools, CNC machines, and the like that the settlement might need to take along, because it’s not just the equipment you take with you, it’s about the long-term requirement to fabricate other tools and the spare parts you will need further down the line. I did a lot of information gathering, and then worked out a payload mass. I made some generalizations here, but these are grounded in researched information. All of that ground-work made me realize I could not just send the colonist landers – these would be the final step, and the larger part of the effort needed to be focused on the pre-positioned Cargo-Landers which would be launched ahead of the manned settlement craft.
I came to similar conclusions about the Mars One project – there doesn’t appear to be any margin for error, and considering the time-in-transit for emergency relief supplies, it seems a lot riskier than need be.
Yeah, I should probably set up a G+ account. I’m probably somewhat backward in that regard. Actually xveers commented on my profile page, and from there I went to your twitter - so again, thanks!
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NyrathWiz In reply to William-Black [2014-02-18 18:28:57 +0000 UTC]
Oh, it makes me very happy to see somebody putting all that data so such good use! You've obviously done your home-work, and all the extra-credit work as well.
My hat is off to you, sir!
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